Real-time hydrologic forecast system (now cast): The future of hydrologic forecast system will utilize monitoring station networks with continuous real-time measurement of a branch of informatics, including hydrologic, atmospheric, and pedologic variables across diverse terrestrial water cycle. The research provides a framework to implement a physical-based integrated hydrologic model (Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model) for real-time hydrologic forecast, and targets a feedback strategies gaining model improvement from forecasting results. Two research questions are being asked:
1) How can we continuously improve the model simulation error and forecast efficiency?
2) How should we optimize the monitoring station networks to improve performance of the
real-time hydrologic forecast system?
2009 data is used as a prototype, before we implement the actual weather forecast.
The model started at 2009-1-1. Weather forecasting data came from the observation data with a slight random fluctuation in precipitation and temperature. We are adding to forcing data with one-day records every hour. The forcing data for forecast is three days longer than that of real-time simulation, which represents the weather forecasting results. So we are doing one-day real-time simulation and three-day forecast.
A simple webpage of discharge rate shows system output in Figure 2. Real-time simulation starts one day ahead, and forecast model ends three days after.
Discharge rate of Shale Hills Watershed
For more information contact:
Christopher Duffy (PI),
Xuan Yu (Ph.D student), Gopal Bhatt (Ph.D student), Lorne Leonard (Ph.D student)
Shale Hills, INVESTIGATOR