An analysis of hydrograph recessions and rainfall data was performed to estimate the recession constants for two watersheds in the Luquillo mountains of Puerto Rico. To account for seasonal rainfall patterns, the data were grouped into dry and wet seasons. Sets of three Master Recession Curves (MRC) per season for each watershed were developed: one using the Matching Strip Method (MS) and two using variations of the Correlation Method (CM). These variations were the envelope line (CME) and the least squares regression (CMR). Other regression based analytical expressions that consider the streamflow recession as an autore-gressive or an integrated moving average process were also applied. The regression based methods performed consistently better than the graphical ones and they proved to be faster, easier, and less subjective. The recession constants from these methods were then used to estimate the time it would take the streamflow to reach the critical Q99 flow duration. Based on this study, once the streamflow reaches Q90, water managers have 6 to 12 days warning before streamflow reaches critical levels.
Rivera-Ramirez, H.D., Warner, G.S., Scatena, F.N. (2002): Prediction of Master Recession Curves and Baseflow Recessions in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Journal of the American Water Resources Association.